It is worth considering a 2023 report authored for the David Suzuki Foundation by Daniel Horen Greenford, a postdoctoral researcher at Concordia University. It is titled ‘Debunking LNG as a Climate Solution.’ Unfortunately, it contains a great deal of bad news for people who care about future generations.

The Government of British Columbia’s climate targets call for steady reductions of problematic emissions, including 40 percent below 2007 by 2030 and net-zero by 2050. Yet, the same government is committed to increased production and consumption of fossil methane gas.

The province and the fossil fuel industry claim that B.C.’s LNG can be a climate solution. Yet, when LNG Canada is producing, it “will become the province’s biggest carbon polluter, emitting the equivalent of 20 percent of B.C.’s 2020 emissions.”

The following is from Greenford’s report:

• Proponents of using gas as a “bridge fuel” argue it can provide reliable energy with lower greenhouse gas emissions than coal or oil as the world transitions over the longer term to carbon-free energy. However, since this proposition first appeared, the case for gas as a bridge fuel has weakened.

• Recent studies have discovered that rates of methane loss throughout the oil and gas supply chain are much higher than previously believed, eroding the climate advantage of gas over other fossil fuels. At the same time, renewables have matured, becoming reliable and cost-competitive.

• …the future of Canadian energy would be better directed at promoting a direct transition to renewable energy at home and abroad, which is not only necessary but well within reach.

• In stark contrast to the needed downward trend, fossil fuel production continues to grow. Countries’ planned extraction dwarfs what is needed under 1.5 C or 2 C energy transitions.

• The latest stock-take of planned extraction found that, in sum, the world’s planned fossil fuel production in 2030 would be over twice what is consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 C, and 45 percent more than what would be consistent to limiting warming to 2 C (19). Countries are planning to produce 71 percent and 15 percent more gas by 2030 than would be consistent with 1.5 C and 2 C, respectively.

• The climate impact of gas is highly understated. The main component of gas is methane (CH4), which is the second-largest contributing GHG to global heating after carbon dioxide (CO2). Methane has 82.5 and 29.8 times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide over 20 and 100 years, respectively. Methane emissions are responsible for approximately 20 percent of present global heating Extraction and use of fossil fuels accounts for about 20 percent of total methane emissions and 30 percent of total anthropogenic methane emissions

• Global warming also melts permafrost and causes more evaporation from wetlands, creating a positive feedback releasing more methane from natural sources.

• Global warming also melts permafrost and causes more evaporation from wetlands, creating a positive feedback releasing more methane from natural sources.

• Methane escapes into the atmosphere throughout the oil and gas supply chain. Methane is often released both intentionally, as in the case of venting from equipment or the release of unwanted gas, or unintentionally, because of equipment leaks or malfunctions such as unlit or inefficient flares.

• Recent studies conducted in the United States and Canada have confirmed that methane losses from oil and gas production occur primarily during irregular events that are not typically reported.

• A team of scientists from Environment and Climate Change Canada conducted the most geographically and temporally comprehensive study to date, performing an eight-year survey of Western Canadian oil and gas production, and found that methane emissions were 90 percent higher than (i.e., almost twice that) reported in national inventories

• Tyner and Johnson, funded in part by the BC Oil and Gas Commission and Natural Resources Canada, and with oversight from ECCC, conducted the most recent study to assess Canadian oil and gas using this composite method, and found methane emissions in British Columbia are 60 to 120 percent higher than current federal inventory estimates.

• Recent analysis from the Pembina Institute also shows that even under highly optimistic assumptions where Canadian producers meet methane reduction targets, GHG emissions from LNG terminals under development (LNG Canada Phase 1 and Woodfibre LNG) and gas production needed to feed these terminals would exceed the B.C. sectoral target, reaching almost twice the level of the 2030 target.

• Liquefied natural gas carriers are powered by either steam turbines or slow-speed diesel engines. LNG carriers that operate on long-haul routes often use steam turbines as they are more fuel-efficient and can reach higher speeds. These ships typically use boil-off gas (BOG), which is the gas that is naturally released from the LNG cargo due to pressure and temperature changes, as fuel for their turbines. Methane loss from engines is common and referred to as “methane slip.” The latest research suggests methane slip is equivalent to a methane loss rate of 4.6 percent. This same research finds slip rates under low performance operating conditions, like while driving at slow speeds in ports and while carrying loads under ship capacity, to be equivalent to a methane loss rate of about 6.7 percent. These loss rates are much higher than previously reported and add substantial GHG emissions to the life cycle of Canadian LNG.

• Gas has a much higher warming effect than carbon dioxide, and its global warming potential is much higher in the near term than long term. Proponents of coal or oil to gas switching usually quote break-even rates over long-term time scales (typically using 100 years.) This downplays the nearer-term climate impacts of gas.