Dan Gardner has an academic and professional resume that evokes immediate respect. He has a degree from Osgoode Hall Law School and an MA History from York University. Gardner was an advisor in Justin Trudeau’s PMO and is an Honorary Senior Fellow at the University of Ottawa. He lectures internationally on forecasting, risk, and decision-making. More importantly, Gardner is a highly regarded columnist and author.
Gardner’s publications include:
- Risk (2008)
- Future Babble (2011)
- Superforecasting (2015), with Philip E. Tetlock
- How Big Things Get Done (2023), with Bent Flyvbjerg
- The Seven Rules of Trust (2025), with Jimmy Wales
January 3, Gardner published When Good Neighbors Go Bad on his Substack account. It’s worth attention. This is only a part:
Franklin Delano Roosevelt understood the United States and all other countries needed to restore international trade while avoiding war. So he included the following resonant observation.
“In the field of world policy I would dedicate this Nation to the policy of the good neighbor — the neighbor who resolutely respects himself and, because he does so, respects the rights of others — the neighbor who respects his obligations and respects the sanctity of his agreements in and with a world of neighbors.“Without offering so much as a coherent explanation for his actions, Trump bombed Venezuela, had its president and his wife kidnapped, and declared the United States would “run” Venezuela until a government to Trump’s liking is installed. Nicolas Maduro and his wife will also be tried for trafficking cocaine, which wouldn’t qualify as a legal pretext for the invasion even if the courtroom were run by Judge Pam Bondi — but it looks even sillier given that a mere month ago Trump bestowed a full pardon on the wealthy and connected Juan Orlando Hernández, the former president of Honduras convicted of industrial-scale cocaine trafficking. No, the war on drugs is not Donald Trump’s thing. Money and power are.
Few things deliver money and power like oil, which is why, on many occasions, Donald Trump publicly insisted that the dumbest thing the US did in Iraq — this is no small claim — was “not taking the oil.” …Venezuela will be a bonanza for American oil companies…
If I had said that in fewer than 365 days after taking office Donald Trump would threaten to invade Panama and Greenland, launch a global trade war, bomb five countries, and invade South America — all while griping about being denied the Nobel Peace Prize — you would have thought I was completely nuts. Yet here we are.
In the Trump era, the real crazies are those sober-minded sorts who won’t speculate about the ridiculous.
Categories: International
in-sights.ca 
I do not think anyone would like having a 34 count convicted felon, sexual predator and one that dabbles with pedophiles being a neighbour.
I am a true beleiver that strong fences make good neighbours.
Again, think 1939 and instead of lebensraum , change to phonetically simpler -OIL.
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Hello and Happy New Year
A great was to start … with words of wisdom! And a chuckle …
who could have imagined!
cheers, Roger
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For Evil Eye…..
America, despite claims of Exceptionalism is not unique. The UK an embarrassed and declining former empire and now an increasingly perplexed ally of America encounters two familiar problems:
1/ Who gets to make crucial decisions?
2/ Who benefits most from such decisions?.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/27/ultra-rich-unelected-power-reshaping-british-politics-equality-trust-report
“‘Unelected power’ of ultra-rich is reshaping British politics, report claims”
“Equality Trust study shows how House of Lords appointments, big donations and media ownership affect political decisions
“Structural corruption and the rise of “conduits for unelected power” are reshaping British politics, according to a stark report from the Equality Trust.”
“Unelected influence has increased over the past two decades, the report claims, driven by the growing political clout of the ultra-rich and the institutions that enable it.””
“Priya Sahni-Nicholas, the co-executive director of the trust, said: “Our new Concentration of Power Index shows that wealth concentration aligns with power. Our index rises almost exactly in step with increases in the top 1% share of wealth. This correlation is strong and statistically significant.””
“The study – Money, Media and Lords: How the ultra-rich are shaping Britain – argues that unelected power in Britain has risen sharply at the same time as an increasing amount of money is spent on political access and influence.”
““These trends move in lockstep with wealth concentration at the top and are increasingly embedded within the country’s political and media systems,” said Sahni-Nicholas.”
Here’s the study
https://equalitytrust.org.uk/evidence-base/money-media-and-lords/
Key Findings
• A twenty-year rise in unelected influence: Our Concentration of Power Index tracks the alignment of party capture, media control, and unelected appointments between 2001 and 2022. Looking at its components: membership of the House of Lords has increased from an average of 676 members in 2001-2003 to 803 members in 2020-2022; large political donations (of more than £250k) rose from £7.6m in 2002 to more than £47m in 2019; the media share of the top three conglomerates rose from 71% in 2014 when the data series began, to 90% in 2022. The Concentration of Power Index synthesises the trends in these key variables into a simple metric, which shows a marked increase and entrenchment in the political influence of the ultra-rich and powerful over the past two decades.
• Wealth concentration moves in step with unelected influence: The Concentration of Power Index rises almost exactly in step with increases in the top 1% share of wealth. As the ultra-rich grow richer, political influence, authority, and power increasingly aligns with them.
• Wealth, not income, is the main driver: The correlation between political influence and wealth inequality (particularly the top 1% share) is strong and statistically significant, while the same is not true for income inequality. Wealth accumulation, rather than wages, is the more relevant driver of the concentration of power.
• Outsized influence is now cemented control: Despite repeated public alarms, the overall trajectory shows no signs of reversing. Britain’s democratic architecture has become more susceptible to unelected influence, now hardening into systemic dominance, while countervailing forces such as trade unions, local journalism, and civic organisations have weakened.
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Too true is this land of Canada with it’s US corporate owned media?
Add to that the USA influence on Alberta politics!
TB
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On the subject of who to trust in politics…
Is it that Europe doubts Keir Starmer will ever form another government? And that Mr Farage can’t be trusted?
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/politics/government/eu-demands-farage-clause-in-brexit-reset-talks-with-starmer/ar-AA1U2sbL?ocid=BingNewsSerp
“EU ‘demands Farage clause’ in Brexit reset talks with Starmer
“The EU is said to be demanding that financial compensation be paid by any future British government that reneges on a post-Brexit “reset” deal signed with Sir Keir Starmer, as part of an attempt to protect the agreement should Reform UK ever come to power.”
“A draft text of the proposed EU-UK “veterinary agreement” – which would slash red tape for UK food and drink exporters – reportedly includes a termination clause that would require Britain to pay a penalty if it left the deal, a stipulation that is said to have been dubbed the “Farage clause” by EU diplomats.”
“But government sources told The Independent that it is standard for agreements to have contingency clauses that apply in the event of termination, adding that any such clause would work both ways, and noting that talks to set out the precise terms of the deal have not yet begun.”
“Responding to the reports, Nigel Farage said he would refuse to hand over any money to Brussels under any deal signed by Sir Keir, telling the Financial Times: “I would break it.”
“He said: “No parliament may bind its successor; we will not honour any clause. If Starmer signs this, it is a democratic outrage.””
“Hitting back, a government source said: “Exit provisions are a basic staple of any international trade agreement. Pretending these routine legal contingencies constitute a democratic outrage is frankly exhausting.””
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How President Trump intends to convince a reluctant French President Macron to join his “Board of Peace.”
With tariffs.
https://www.dw.com/en/trump-floats-200-tariff-on-french-wine-over-perceived-board-of-peace-snub/a-75574134
Donald Trump has warned of steep tariffs on French wine and champagne as he presses France’s president Emmanuel Macron to join a US-led “Board of Peace.” Paris has signaled that it does not plan to join the initiative.
US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 200% tariff on French wines and champagnes amid reports that French President Emmanuel Macron declined to join his proposed “Board of Peace” initiative.
Trump linked the tariff threat directly to Macron’s apparent refusal to participate in the body, which the US president has pitched as a forum to resolve global conflicts.
Under the plan, longer-term members would be required to pay $1 billion each (about €857,170,000) into a fund overseen by Trump as chairman.
Asked about Macron’s decision not to join the board, Trump dismissed the French president’s position.
“Did he say that? Well, nobody wants him because he will be out of office very soon,” Trump said.
“I’ll put a 200% tariff on his wines and champagnes, and he’ll join, but he doesn’t have to join,” Trump said.
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