Horgan, John

2020 election

A close observer of BC politics recently asked if I expected John Horgan to call an election before the scheduled date 13 months from now.

My quick response was yes, Horgan will soon ask for a new mandate. The reasons:

  • Polls now show strong approval for John Horgan’s leadership but that can only go down.
  • People in general are satisfied with the provincial response to coronavirus but voters will grow tired of restrictions and take a negative view of the government imposing them.
  • Effects of economic decay will become more apparent as the virus continues or grows worse, which it is likely to do this autumn.
  • The disaster that is Site C is not yet fully revealed. Details are being hidden for a purpose. Wait until 2021 for an election and it might well be clear the project is a blunder of unprecedented proportions. This is an NDP project now, not one by Liberals.
  • LNG projects are not viable without further public subsidies. (Cost-cutting Petronas is looking at withdrawing from LNG Canada.) NDP would rather provide more incentives than see projects die. Doing so would reflect badly on the government’s already shaky environmental credentials. Better to hold a vote first.
  • Sonia Furstenau is a progressive environmentalist. This means that NDP cannot rely on Greens for support of their natural resource and environmental policies.
  • There’s elitist Andrew Wacky Wilkinson. I’m sure Horgan would rather campaign against him than just about anyone.
  • NDP are not now suffering financial disadvantages they’ve faced in previous elections. The party’s financial state is far better than it was for the last few votes.

BC Liberals ruled for 16 years as a right wing coalition shaped by corporate interests. Today’s BC NDP hopes to rule as long as a centrist coalition heavily influenced by major trade unions.

WAC Bennett, British Columbia’s most successful politician, called elections seven times, 1953 to 1972. The average interval between them was 35 months. A vote in late October 2020 would be 42 months after the last election.

Political pundit Martyn Brown wrote that Premier Horgan is “an old-school partisan, whose actions have sometimes put his party’s interests above the public interest.”

That’s not necessarily a criticism. Idealists tend to sit on the sidelines talking about what politicians should do. Successful partisans sit with the levers of power in hand.

I believe that John Horgan sees the time is right to secure a grip on those levers for another four years.

Categories: Horgan, John, NDP BC

10 replies »

  1. The BC Liberals are no longer held in high odor and Horgan must realize that event though BC had one of the most corrupt governments in BC, the NDP could not gain more seats.

    In the spring, the following going to haunt the NDP.

    1) The economy as Covid-19 eviscerates the economy, BC will be in bad shape. No jobs, little tax revenue.
    2) Site C, a vast catastrophe is in the making.
    3) TransLink and a trio of very expensive transit projects, almost $4.6 billions worth, with billions more needed,may start a taxpayer’s revolt as taxes will increase and not many able to pay. As the truth of the Broadway subway comes to light, comparisons with FastFerries will become more and more.
    4) Out of control municipal spending, will confront Horgan as there is little wiggle room for excuses
    not reigning in municipal government spending.
    5) The 2020 grad class will wake up and find that they were screwed by the NDP, no jobs and little future awaits them. Anger is growing, the media ignores, but we see recent events in Surrey is but a snapshot of things to come.
    6) The inept federal NDP leader will weigh heavily on the provincial NDP.
    7) ICBC
    8) Housing
    9) The weak performance by several star Ministers such as Eby, Travena and Ma
    10 Covid fatigue.
    11) Etc., etc.

    Remember Mair’s axiom #1: You don’t have to be a 10 in politics to win, you can be a 3 and the opposition leader a 2 and that sums up politics in BC this fall. Horgan is a 3 and Wilkinson a 2.

    Horgan may call an election, but his candidates may be pipped at the post by Liberal candidates, who will be elected because they are not the best, but they aren’t NDP.

    The Greens, I am afraid are toast.

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    • In short, his reasons for calling an election are solely for maintaining power. He wants to get the Greens out of the way so that the union boys will be happy being paid to build projects that will kill the planet.

      When I see the Western US on fire and the planet reaching the point of no return, these politics seem like ridiculous small men serving themselves and virtually themselves alone. Politics has become a game. It has nothing to do with any kind of principles or integrity. A disgrace. These guys will pat themselves on the backs while our children die.

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      • Very true comments Terry; and also very sad.

        Who will stand up for our grandchildren when they whole system is a sham. Shame on our politicians, shame on our ‘legal’ system, shame on us voters who support the kabuki theater we call government.

        I now know why the BC Hydro fiscal 2020 financials have not been released. The calculus is that it’s safer to reveal a $1 billion loss after your re-election. It makes me sick.

        I’m voting green this time for sure, at least they haven’t been corrupted yet….. so little integrity in our province.

        Liked by 1 person

        • I agree completely, though the jury is out on the Greens.

          As you are into Site C, I am into that arcane subject for transit and for almost 40 years, I have been warning about the costs and pitfalls of current transit planning.

          Today the public, the Canadian, Provincial and regional taxpayer has spent, including the $4.6 billion for the 12.8 km extensions to the Expo and Millennium Lines, over $16 billion in direct payments, subsidies, debt servicing, contractual P-3 payments (to SNC Lavalin no less) and other sundry costs on what is largely a “prestige” transit system that today nobody wants, nobody has copied and by all accounts is both obsolete in technology and in transit philosophy.

          Yet the region and province continues to pursue doing the same thing over and over again, spending up to ten times more than they should, despite the fact the world has moved on..

          Site C and forestry practices are the same.

          My late father, a UBC forestry graduate, predicted the current state of affairs when the foresters were kicked out of the forestry companies and replaced with accountants in the late 70’s and 80’s.

          “Give it 40 years” my dad said when he was forcibly given early retirement, “and the forests will burn”.

          Accountants were running the show and accountants know nothing of best forestry practice.

          Site C, again is a 1950’s policy, forced upon us by a dishonest bureaucracy and plain dumb as ditch-water politicians. In 2020, Wind, solar and thermal power are cheaper and when tidal power is perfected, the costs for electricity will drop further. New monster dams are nothing more than massive dinosaurs looking for a financial tar-pit and cheaper more flexible power generation comes on line.

          Sadly Horgan and the NDP have sided with the booster class, which is just chuckling, fleecing the taxpayer into financial oblivion.

          We have left nothing but despair for our children.

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    • Excellent analysis. Makes me wonder why any politician would want to seek another term considering a very bleak future. And although I voted NDP in the last election, I doubt very much John Horgan will receive my support after his 360 on so many issues he argued against when the right wing was destroying this Province.

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  2. The polling suggests Horgan would win in our current system. He needs the victory to release the bad news on Site C and LNG. Any politician would do the same.The opposition has a very weak leader and the Greens have a new leader.Polls will dictate when to call an election even if there are fixed election dates.

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    • I agree. Polling is everything to these political animals. The longer this hangs out there without an announcement, the more they’ll be able to gauge public sentiment.

      Obviously they have more sophisticated methods than us plebs observing at home, but from here the loudest cries of wounded indignation are coming from the BC Liberals and their surrogates, including the usual media suspects. That would normally prove instructive.

      The wild card however, getting wilder daily, is the COVID-19 infection rate. One of the reasons the NDP was riding high in popular opinion polls was management of the pandemic. It will be very difficult to maintain that profile in the midst of an unsettling rise in infections and a very public push by the BCTF to remedy what it sees as an unsafe return to school by over half a million students.

      Playing political games with B.C. Hydro MIGHT be forgiven. Playing political games around the health and safety of the populace, even if only a perception, would never be.

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  3. If there is any election I would like to see happen, but somewhat reluctantly, just because of the times, is to see that corrupt bastard Trudeau go. Just seeing that elite entitled slimy finance robber Morneau having to go was pleasure. I know it was probably a distraction to cover Trudeau somewhat but he was in a pickle

    As with Horgan, I will only vote independent or most likely the Greens and hope they get more seats and we can have a stronger third party balance of power. Hopefully better than the ass kissing coalition Green party so far. They have stand on their own sometime for god sake. But. no matter who gets in, strong majorities in power is not healthy anymore. It’s all too corrupting and makes politicians to high on power. People and politicians can say, oh, they need too have mandate to govern properly. What, govern for their own interests even if it’s wrong and insanely stupid, along with the special interest and friends. Site C is but once example.

    I just don’t see the big lead in polls turning into actual voter turn out because of Covid and anger. those are just polls. It’s the ballot box that counts. Most of the Liberal voters will most or all will likely go back and vote for Liberals, as we seen in the last election when Horgan on his own actually lost the election. And maybe even some that went for the Green party last time, will probably go back to their home ground. I hate too say it but i think they are stronger for getting out there and voting. Just saying. Look what happened when dipstick Dix ran against Clark. Oh boy oh boy they thought it was in the bag. We were surprised when Horgan lost the election last time even after the scandals and crimes of the governing Liberals. Oh well let’s see how the dice falls in the election for Horgan. Our newest governing power monger Joooohhn Horgan !!!

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    • Seems like voters enjoy corruption as long as it benefits them and their friends. We get the government we deserve under our system and I’m afraid we may continue to be punished by poor governance for the foreseeable future.

      My only hope is that wrongdoers of past and current governments will be held liable… this does rely on our ‘justice’ system actually providing justice.

      Until we see any glimmers of ethical governance, we all need to raise the awareness of our friends and neighbours to the misdeeds of our governments. Norm is doing terrific work on this site, but mainstream news is still lagging way behind. I spoke with a news anchor recently and she was not aware that BC Hydro has not released their financial report from last year yet. This should be a scandal by now and it will eventually be revealed that more than $1billion was lost.

      Should we laugh or cry?!

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