Seattle based writer David Roberts reports on energy matters. Follow his VOLTS newsletter if the subject interests you. Recently Roberts explored the variability of renewable energy. Opponents of wind and solar power rely on this subject to raise objections.

Despite virtually all of the electricity generated by BC Hydro being dispatchable, the public utility has discouraged addition of variable renewable energy (VRE). Roberts says variability is the number one reservation people have about wind and solar:

Many people, bringing to bear varying levels of good faith, conclude from this fact that we shouldn’t or can’t shift to an electricity system that is based around wind and solar, at least not without occasionally shivering in the cold.

The podcast What? The sun isn’t always shining?! is available at Volts. Robert’s conversation with Princeton’s Jesse Jenkins covers technical issues but emphasizes that wind and solar are the cheapest sources of electricity and solutions are available to the variability challenge.

From the podcast:

We are shifting from an electricity system based on dispatchable power plants that we can turn on and off at will to a system that is fundamentally based on non-dispatchable weather-dependent power plants.

That raises a whole host of problems to solve. So, why take on the burden of dealing with variable energy?

What we’ve seen is a tremendous decline in the cost of wind and solar power. As we deploy any technology, but in particular wind and solar at scale, we drive a whole set of processes centered around innovation and competition that lower the cost of the technology.

The sum product of that is that wind and solar are the cheapest way to get electricity, period. In most of the world today, solar is the cheapest, and if it’s not, it’s probably wind.

And so that’s the main reason to rely on it. It’s just it’s a cheap source of both clean and abundant electricity.

But this is not something that we’re taking on just because of climate change. It is because this prize is out there: super cheap electricity.

We don’t depend entirely on wind and solar. Wind and solar can be the staple of our energy diet but have to be complemented by other things. No one’s saying use wind and solar power all the time for everything. We’re saying there is a need for cheap, clean energy sources that are scalable.

Even people who want 100% renewables acknowledge the need for storage and hydro or other dispatchable energy sources. They acknowledge you need resources to balance variable renewables.

One nation embracing non-destructive sources of energy is Uruguay. It has the highest rate of non-hydro clean energy penetration in Latin America. Wind and solar met 36% of national power demand in 2021.

Renewables alone have powered the Uruguayan economy for nearly four straight months.

In the three months to end-September 2023, the South American nation generated all of its electricity from renewable sources — with wind the single-biggest contributor, according to data from the country’s electricity market operator. And as of October 25, it’s on track to extend that streak by another month.

‘Energy independent’ Uruguay runs on 100% renewables for four straight months

Brazil is another. The nation has received proposals for installation of more than 170 gigawatts of offshore energy:

There is not enough demand for that amount of electricity, however. That’s where green hydrogen comes into play. Coupling this technology with the enormous potential for offshore wind could consolidate Brazil’s standing as a renewable energy superpower building on its already advanced wind energy supply chain and wider industrial and maritime capabilities.

The renewable resources available in Brazil, especially its abundance of quality wind both onshore and offshore, are certainly unique in the world. This opens a window of opportunity for the production of green hydrogen, which would have the capacity not only to revolutionise Brazil’s energy matrix – already one of the most renewable in the world – but also to export green hydrogen to other countries that may not be able to produce all the renewable energy they will need to meet their energy transition goals.

Global Wind Report 2023

In 2021, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of wind power plants in Brazil amounted to 2¢ (US) per kilowatt-hour. The rest of South America reported a LCOE of approximately 5¢ (US) per kilowatt-hour in 2021.

Keep in mind that electricity produced at Site C will cost upwards of 18¢ per kilowatt-hour. We can’t know the exact number because BC Hydro has not updated the project budget since February 2021. A 2021 report by academics estimated the LCOE of Site C power would be 17.5¢ per KWh, but inflationary pressures on other megaprojects indicate the dam’s almost three-year-old budget estimate will rise substantially.