BC Hydro

You couldn’t stop solar if you wanted to stop solar

Worldwide solar energy capacity has been growing rapidly. In 2022, it was 150 times higher than in 2006 and more than double the level of 2018 when BC Hydro moved to discourage solar power systems. A tiny proportion of the utility’s accounts was feeding solar power to the grid, but BC Hydro worried about added customers embracing solar, particularly large consumers of electricity.

Data source: International Renewable Energy Agency

BC Hydro’s restraint of solar power was a policy disaster because low inflows to the Peace and Columbia Rivers now threaten the utility’s energy production. Three months ago, Minister of Emergency Management Bowinn Ma called the drought a “sleeping giant of a natural disaster.” Before the present-day water problems, output at BC Hydro’s dams had been declining steadily, despite upgrades to generating equipment. Five-year output per megawatt of capacity during fiscal years 2019 to 2023 declined 18 percent from the five-year period ending 20 years ago.

According to the International Energy Agency, utility scale PV is now the least costly option for new electricity generation in most countries. Solar power systems can coexist with wind power generation and with agricultural, industrial, and commercial land uses.

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Climate journalist David Roberts of VOLTS interviewed Jenny Chase, a solar analyst for BloombergNEF and author of Solar Power Finance without the Jargon. Roberts wrote about her book:

Roberts asked if solar photovoltaic (PV) would thrive now without public supports. Her response, “You couldn’t stop solar if you wanted to stop solar.”

Other comments by Ms. Chase:

  • Solar modules cost over $100 per watt in the 1970s, in today’s money. By the time we started in 2004, they cost about $4 a watt. Last week they were 12.8 U.S. cents per watt.
  • Solar is the cheapest source of bulk electricity generation in many countries. There are some northern countries where wind is slightly cheaper.
  • We built grids for centralized power plants. That made a sense when we had centralized power plants. But to get all this cheap electricity from wind and solar to market, we are going to have to build some more wires.
  • Solar buildout is happening fastest in China. It has a very coordinated rooftop program and is building energy megabases as well. Solar modules are super cheap and quite easy to build compared to everything else. Much more like assembling Lego than building a nuclear power plant. China is the reason solar is not a cottage industry anymore.
  • One big update between the first edition of my book and the second is that batteries are just a thing now. Over 70% of residential solar systems in Germany and Italy added this year now have batteries attached.
  • There are incredibly talented engineers who are working hard to make solar panels more efficient and produce the same output or more output with fewer materials. And so, a big improvement over the last 15 years is from wafers getting thinner, so there is much less polysilicon used per watt. It used to be about ten grams per watt in 2008, and today it is 2.6 grams per watt. It is a cost-saving and an embodied carbon saving. Solar panels are getting cheaper, more efficient, and more dependable.
  • Efficiency is about 22% for the typical module this year. We have a roadmap to 34%, supplying a third more power from the same space.
  • There is still the possibility that things get so cheap that we can leapfrog over the need to build a centralized fossil fuel infrastructure to bring power to Africa.
  • It is cheaper to reach net zero building a mix of solar and wind in nearly all of the world. I mean, there may be a few countries that have so low seasonality that you could just do it with solar, but for most of the world, the lower cost scenario will be at least 50% wind, 50% solar.
  • We underestimate the impact of solar in sunny places. Build solar in sunny places, build some transmission, build some batteries, it will all be good.


Categories: BC Hydro, Energy

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6 replies »

  1. We believe it and have had solar since 2009. Quite an outlay of money then, compared to the additional panels we put up in 2017 under the Alberta NDP rebate. This winter, we are doing our son’s roof helped by Justin Trudeau’s retrofit rebates. The fossils can say what they want, but their nonsense about the sun not always shining and the wind not always blowing will be put to rest by batteries, growing efficiency and a smarter grid.
    We’re all in……..and economically, solar panels, EV vehicles….both save the homeowner lots of money.

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  2. We’re likely familiar with the concerns about the seasonality, and the on/off availability of solar (and wind power for that matter). Given the massive increases in solar power output, especially in those regions with abundant sunlight, what does one do with the excess solar (and wind) power, so it’s not wasted when it’s available? Can we generate too much solar (and wind) power, as the capacity keeps climbing? Apparently not.
    “In demonstrating a modular, factory-assembled, commercial-scale thermal battery using low-cost and earth-abundant materials, Antora has proven a clear path to cost-effectively decarbonizing industry, which accounts for 30% of global emissions. By delivering both thermal energy and electricity, Antora’s thermal batteries open an opportunity to meet all of the manufacturing sector’s energy needs at costs competitive with fossil fuels, unlocking a trillion-dollar annual market.”
    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230912303836/en/Antora-Energy-Launches-Ready-to-Scale-Industrial-Decarbonization-Technology-Establishes-New-Ultra-High-Temperature-Record

    https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/01/25/us-startup-begins-producing-40-efficient-thermophotovoltaic-cells/ “US startup begins producing 40%-efficient thermophotovoltaic cells”

    It’s interesting how the intensifying drought in BC (and surroundings) is depicted by Bowinn Ma as a “sleeping giant of a natural (?) disaster” when the evidence-based climate science modelling ties a good part of the drought conditions to human-caused climate change. What’s so “natural” about the human-caused climate crisis?
    “Climate change is changing the baseline conditions toward a drier, gradually drier state in the (American) West and that means the worst-case scenario keeps getting worse.”
    “We need to be even preparing for conditions in the future that are far worse than this.”
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/megadrought-climate-1.6352052 “Megadrought worsens to driest in at least 1,200 years in western U.S.” (February 15, 2022)

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  3. Our politicians just do not understand solar power, nor do bureaucrats, who continue to spout the same old dated cliche’s about solar power.

    There is no reason that a simple solar/wind powered device could be installed on all new build houses, to provide partial power, taking the load off Hydro power.

    I guess cutting ribbons on a small, solar/wind plant, the size of a garden shed does not have the same verve of cutting ribbons on a multi billion dollar dam.

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  4. “Solar modules cost over $100 per watt in the 1970s, in today’s money. By the time we started in 2004, they cost about $4 a watt. Last week they were 12.8 U.S. cents per watt.”

    That is HUGE news! I suspect the opposite is true of building hydro dams today, compared to the 1970s.

    Tuesday morning on CBC Radio, I heard that BC has become a net importer of electricity — from Alberta and the USA — for the first time in 16 years. Here’s Global’s take on it: https://globalnews.ca/video/10181132/bc-hydro-importing-power-as-drought-drags-on-in-provinces-northeast/

    Low-info critics of wind and solar power often sneer the stale lament: “What happens when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine?”

    Well, now we have a legitimate counter: “What happens when it doesn’t rain or snow?” In a place where ample precipitation has been a given for centuries, it seems unthinkable — but here we are, with BC’s biggest-ever white elephant almost complete… and there’s not enough natural water ready to fill it.

    Clearly, BC Hydro needs to be branching out from hydro power and building solar, wind and other installations; in-province and publicly-owned being the best for our energy (and pricing) security.

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  5. Never fear, folks. The saviour has arrived. Via a new initiative by Resource Works.

    https://www.resourceworks.com/energy-futures-launch

    Where have we heard about Resource Works before? Why right here on Norm’s site, for one. This should immediately make us all feel better about our energy future here in B.C.

    BC Government “deni-osaurs”

    The saviour was on the radio this morning spouting his new vision. Didn’t hear much support for solar. What a surprise.

    Liked by 1 person

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