COVID-19 dead: 5 million or 20 million?

The official death toll from COVID-19 is about 5 million. According to mortality researchers, the real number is likely closer to 20 million. Reasons for the disparity:

  1. People die while infected without being tested, so not counted in official records as COVID19 deaths.
  1. Individuals die from other preventable causes because they were not treated in overloaded healthcare systems.
  1. Less developed nations may lack the means to gather accurate mortality statistics during a pandemic.
  1. A few regions choose not to collect accurate COVID19 statistics for political and economic reasons.

It is widely accepted that COVID-19 originated in China, either from animal sources or by a laboratory accident in the central city of Wuhan. Yet according to China’s government, the rate of pandemic deaths in that country is three per million population and only two people have died from the virus in the past year.

If the Asian nation’s statistics were true, Canada’s COVID-19 death rate would be more than 250 times higher and the USA’s rate almost 800 times higher. Peru’s official count would be 2,000 times higher than China’s. Of course, the autocratic country fits point 4 listed above.

Speaking to Germany’s DW News, University of Tübingen data scientist Dmitry Kobak said official COVID-19 deaths may be affected by inadequate testing capacities and imprecise reporting policies. He said excess mortality statistics are more reliable indicators of actual COVID-19 deaths.

In any given period of time, a certain number of people die due to many particular reasons, such as old age, illness, violence, traffic accidents and more. Researchers are able to predict the number of deaths from these causes over coming months or years, known as expected deaths, using the same information gathered from previous months and years. However, pandemics, conflicts, and natural and man-made disasters cause additional deaths above and beyond those expected, which are known as ‘excess deaths’.

Study tracks global death toll of COVID-19 pandemic

Analyses by researchers Ariel Karlinsky and Dmitry Kobak showed:

In several of the countries worst affected by COVID-19 – namely Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia and Mexico – excess deaths were more than 50% above the expected annual mortality rate, or above 400 excess deaths per 100,000 people as in Peru, Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Serbia. At the same time, in countries such as Australia and New Zealand, mortality during the pandemic was below the usual level, which the authors suggest is likely due to social distancing measures reducing the number of deaths caused by other infections besides COVID-19.

Furthermore, the researchers found that while many countries have been reporting their COVID-19 death rates accurately, some including Nicaragua, Belarus, Egypt and Uzbekistan have underreported these numbers by more than 10 times.

Categories: Health

5 replies »

  1. Another relevant comparison would be the Iraq war. I think it was the Mayo clinic that did a study at the time of the war, and found deaths exceeded normal mortality by 100,000 in the first year. The connection to death by war is irrefutable no matter how you slice it.


  2. Meanwhile the ant-vaxxers are beating the drum that the numbers are all fake and nobody is dying with covid. My experience, In March of 2020 I came home early from my volunteer day. I felt like crap and went to bed. I called my daughter to tell her of the situation. We talked about Covid and if I could have been infected. OK, next step, how does one get tested? Remember this was in March of 2020. She called the local nursing centre, and my doctor’s office. Nothing. Nobody knew how or where to get tested and they seemed not to care. We came to the conclusion that nobody wanted to know. A week after I became sick, covid was declared a pandemic. I wondered how many other people were in my situation but nobody wanted to know.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. I have read somewhere that Republican governed states such as Florida and Texas has under recorded Covid deaths by as much as 50%. Even Democratic states have under-reported deaths by as much as 50%. Thus the death toll in the US from covid maybe 70% higher than reported.

    I once bookmarked an interesting website tracking Covid out of Seattle and their numbers were always around 30% higher than the site became no more. This site offered absolutely no comment and their methodology and sources were good.


  4. To answer Alex; I don’t think I had Covid. I think I had just a normal run of the flu. Weird symptoms though; no cough, no headache, no great gobs of snot. Just tired and slept 18 hours a day for a week, but took 3 weeks before I got any energy/gumption back.


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